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Below is what the standard daily email looks like. This email is from Friday 1st March 2019 for the first round of the UK Open :- 

OnTheOche

UK Open 2019

SUMMARY

1.50 pts on Ross Smith to bt Dawson Murschell @ 1.57
1pt on Jarred Cole to bt Michael Barnard @ 2.45
1pt on Christian Bunse to bt John Michael @ 2.5

DETAILS

1.50 pts on Ross Smith to bt Dawson Murschell @ 1.57
– match due to start around 1.00pm

Minimum odds to take = 1.5
Top Odds Available = 1.62 willhill, marathon, 1.61 pinnacle, 1.6 expekt/betclic

Ross Smith is someone we bet on last year a lot as he started improving over 2018. He’s becoming a really good player. His last 12 month total average is 92.86 871 legs which is higher than players like Joe Cullen, Stephen Bunting, Steve West and Danny Noppert.

On all known factors there’s a gulf between these 2 players far bigger than the odds suggest. Smith has thrown top 40 standard darts over a full 12 months now and is improving more and more as the months go on.

Murschell hasn’t really done much of note at all since getting his tour card last January and is currently on a run of 9 back-to-back 1st round defeats. He’s young so he could improve and he’s not a no-hoper by any means, but Smith is a long way ahead of him at the moment.

On his day Murschell can play well and he did beat Ross Smith in a game back in November. So it’s not a banker but overall I think I’d have Smith around a 1.3 shot so a good margin of value.

For context of the gulf there is between them currently, below is where the players sit on the total average table:-

Last 12 months – Smith 35th (average of 92.86) – Murschell 206th (average 85.58)

Last 6 months – Smith 24th, Murschell 269th

2019 so far – Smith 27th, Murschell 268th

1pt on Jarred Cole to bt Michael Barnard @ 2.45
– match due to start around 11:00am

Minimum odds to take = 2.2
Top Odds Available = 2.62 bet365, 2.6 marathon, 2.5 paddy, betclic/expekt, sportingbet/bwin, 2.48 188bet, 2.47 pinnacle

Barnard has had a shocking start to 2019. Not sure what is happening with him but something seems amiss. His numbers so far in 2019 are way off even basic PDC youth tour standard. He’s lost 8 out of 8 and won just 13 legs with a combined average of 78. It’s not even been a run of missed doubles, he’s barely had a shot at double most legs. Very strange as he had a very good year in 2018.

He doesn’t seem in the best frame of mind. I saw a post of his on facebook the other week asking if anyone could recommend a sports psychologist and he was talking about how he’d lost his way with his game and it was all getting on top of him.

Jarred Cole is only 18 but he’s showed potential. He isn’t going to be winning majors anytime soon but he’s capable enough. Barnard is much better than him overall but if Barnard plays in this game how he’s played so far in 2019 then Cole should probably win really.

At odds-against I think Cole seems an obvious bet.

1pt on Christian Bunse to bt John Michael @ 2.5
– match due to start around 12:00pm

Minimum odds to take = 2.2
Top Odds Available = 2.62 betvic

I’m not really sure why these odds are this way around. Granted, it is a tricky match to assess as you have a German youth player vs a Greek old stager so their career paths are completely different and you can’t directly compare. But if I was to price this I don’t think I’d have Michael as heavy a favourite as he is, or even a favourite at all tbh.

Over the last 12 months I’ve got a fairly decent sample size of 565 legs in my database for Bunse via a mix of the youth tour, q-school and euro tour events. He looks a promising player and improving as time is going on.

Over the last 12 months his average is 86.96 (143rd of all players with over 100 legs). In the last 6 months it was 88.16 (117th) and in 2019 so far it is 88.53 (104th). So he’s improving the more he plays which is obviously what we want to see from a young player.

I’ve only got 265 legs in the last 12 months for John Michael but all of those have come in the last 3 months. He’s averaged 86.39 over those 265 legs. He’s been around for a long time so we can be pretty confident of his level. He’s good on his day, he’s awful on other days. This game is hard to call I would say and could go either way so Bunse looks the value price to me.

THOUGHTS ON OTHER GAMES

* anything below this text is not an official bet and is merely my thoughts on some of the other games today that have something of interest but didn’t make the cut to be an official bet. Use as you wish.

Reece Robinson is around 2.3/2.38 against Jason Cullen. That was on my shortlist and I only cut it because there’s too much guessing based on small samples on Cullens standard. On the limited data I have this looks at worst 50/50 so if you wanted to risk it @ 2.3+ then it doesn’t look a bad bet but I can’t be 100% sure.

Shaun Fox (3.25 – 3.5) could be worth a go based purely on the fact he came through what looked a very tough Rileys qualifier. He beat Paul Hogan in the final and some other good players along the way. I know absolutely nothing about him other than that though so it is basically betting blind. We know all about Andy Jenkins so you can roughly work out the standard of player needed to beat him and Fox probably is there if he’s beating players like Hogan.

Ian McFarlane (4.0 – 4.5) is another Rileys qualifier. Got bits and bobs of data on him and he’s ok on that. His opponent Adrian Gray isn’t doing much so far this year so might be worth a punt.

Our outright bet Jamie Hughes comes in at the 1st round and his trickiest match of the afternoon is probably this round. Callan Rydz is a good player and probably shouldn’t be this big odds. Hughes has been playing elite level darts though so should win but it’s a tricky game.

You’d expect Joe Murnan and Jose De Sousa to both win and both are are 1.55 – 1.6 sort of prices. There’s not the margin there was on the Ross Smith bet but still looks something you could have as a double or something if you fancied it.

The closest I came to adding another official bet was Vincent Van Der Voort @ 2.2 – 2.3 to beat Luke Humphries. That price is maybe a bit of an overreaction to Humphries good world champs run. What put me off in the end was VdV usually bottles it in close matches in big events and Humphries so far has raised his game in majors. On pure numbers though VDV is a value bet @ 2.2+

 

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