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1.50 pts on Ross Smith to bt Dawson Murschell @ 1.57
– match due to start around 1.00pm

Minimum odds to take = 1.5
Top Odds Available = 1.62 willhill, marathon, 1.61 pinnacle, 1.6 expekt/betclic

Ross Smith is someone we bet on last year a lot as he started improving over 2018. He’s becoming a really good player. His last 12 month total average is 92.86 over 871 legs which is higher than players like Joe Cullen, Stephen Bunting, Steve West and Danny Noppert.

On all known factors there’s a gulf between these 2 players far bigger than the odds suggest. Smith has thrown top 40 standard darts over a full 12 months now and is improving more and more as the months go on.

Murschell hasn’t really done much of note at all since getting his tour card last January and is currently on a run of 9 back-to-back 1^st round defeats. He’s young so he could improve and he’s not a no-hoper by any means, but Smith is a long way ahead of him at the moment.

On his day Murschell can play well and he did beat Ross Smith in a game back in November. So it’s not a banker but overall I think I’d have Smith around a 1.3 shot so a good margin of value.

For context of the gulf there is between them currently, below is where the players sit on the total average table:-

Last 12 months – Smith 35th (average of 92.86) – Murschell 206th (average 85.58)

Last 6 months – Smith 24th, Murschell 269th

2019 so far – Smith 27th, Murschell 268th

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1pt on Jarred Cole to bt Michael Barnard @ 2.45
– match due to start around 11:00am

Minimum odds to take = 2.2
Top Odds Available = 2.62 bet365, 2.6 marathon, 2.5 paddy, betclic/expekt, sportingbet/bwin, 2.48 188bet, 2.47 pinnacle

Barnard has had a shocking start to 2019. Not sure what is happening with him but something seems amiss. His numbers so far in 2019 are way off even basic PDC youth tour standard. He’s lost 8 out of 8 and won just 13 legs with a combined average of 78. It’s not even been a run of missed doubles, he’s barely had a shot at double most legs. Very strange as he had a very good year in 2018.

He doesn’t seem in the best frame of mind. I saw a post of his on facebook the other week asking if anyone could recommend a sports psychologist and he was talking about how he’d lost his way with his game and it was all getting on top of him.

Jarred Cole is only 18 but he’s showed potential. He isn’t going to be winning majors anytime soon but he’s capable enough. Barnard is much better than him overall but if Barnard plays in this game how he’s played so far in 2019 then Cole should probably win really.

At odds-against I think Cole seems an obvious bet.

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1pt on Christian Bunse to bt John Michael @ 2.5
– match due to start around 12:00pm

Minimum odds to take = 2.2
Top Odds Available = 2.62 betvic

I’m not really sure why these odds are this way around. Granted, it is a tricky match to assess as you have a German youth player vs a Greek old stager so their career paths are completely different and you can’t directly compare. But if I was to price this I don’t think I’d have Michael as heavy a favourite as he is, or even a favourite at all tbh.

Over the last 12 months I’ve got a fairly decent sample size of 565 legs in my database for Bunse via a mix of the youth tour, q-school and euro tour events. He looks a promising player and improving as time is going on.

Over the last 12 months his average is 86.96 (143rd of all players with over 100 legs). In the last 6 months it was 88.16 (117th) and in 2019 so far it is 88.53 (104th). So he’s improving the more he plays which is obviously what we want to see from a young player.

I’ve only got 265 legs in the last 12 months for John Michael but all of those have come in the last 3 months. He’s averaged 86.39 over those 265 legs. He’s been around for a long time so we can be pretty confident of his level. He’s good on his day, he’s awful on other days. This game is hard to call I would say and could go either way so Bunse looks the value price to me.